Expecting the Unexpected

Declining Birth Rates, Putin's Parade

Some fellow San Francisco baseball season-ticket holders recently announced the impending birth of their first child. After congratulating them on the news, I had to ask: “Are you sure now is the best time to bring another Giants fan into this world?” Maybe I’m being too cautious. It’s not that the current season isn’t going that badly. It is. It’s just that, given average life expectancy and the promise of longevity gains, there’s a chance that a child born in 2026 can still expect to live long enough to see the team’s hitting improve. Probably. But my concerns serve as a pretty decent metaphor for birth rate trends across many nations. Even where economic and other factors suggest people should be making more babies, they’re making fewer. “This is not simply a matter of affordability, the buzzword so often invoked to explain why people are choosing to have smaller families ... What unites these disparate cultures, policy environments and demographics, researchers are now realizing, is young people’s inescapable and crushing sense that the future is too uncertain for the lifelong commitment of parenthood. Call it the vibes theory of demographic decline.” Anna Louie Sussman in the NYT (Gift Article): Why So Few Babies? We Might Have Overlooked the Biggest Reason of All. (In short, people have no idea what to expect when they’re expecting.)

+ Sussman, the author of the forthcoming book Inconceivable: The Impossibility of Family in an Age of Uncertainty, shares some of the potential factors driving the ambivalence. “In the United States, job tenures have contracted and income volatility has risen. Life expectancy, once on an inexorable march upward, has fallen for less-educated women and men. Many of the forces our economy is built on — A.I., immigration, global trade — feel distressingly volatile; disruption, once a byword for a disturbance or problem, is the governing ethos of a terrifyingly powerful sector of our economy. The rise of prediction markets has turned the world into one large casino. The climate crisis is spiraling, as are the costs of everything that could enable parenthood, whether that’s a roof over one’s head or child care. The past half-century has brought us breathtaking inequality, accompanied by a sharp decline in social mobility. The two generations currently of childbearing age bear the psychological and financial scars of coming of age amid world-scale catastrophes: Older millennials entered the labor market during the Great Recession; many watched their parents lose their jobs or homes. Gen Z, whose lives were upturned by the Covid-19 pandemic, now find themselves competing against A.I. for entry-level jobs and even prospective partners. The man running America seems single-mindedly devoted to chaos at home and abroad.”

+ I can tell by this brief overview of the state of the world that Sussman is probably a NextDraft subscriber. I’m not sure all sociologists and economists will agree that stress and uncertainty are the key factors driving down natality across the world, but it definitely helps explain why, even this season, I’d rather watch Giants games than the news.

2

Will Reined Reign Rain on Parade?

Putin is presiding over a Victory Day parade this weekend. But here’s the rub. “He has no victories to celebrate. Persistent Ukrainian drone strikes across Russia, including on the capital, have forced Putin to ask for a cease-fire for the duration of the festivities. Parade organizers, citing security threats, have also dramatically downgraded the event, eliminating the display of armored vehicles and the march by military cadets. Cellphone and internet services are slated to be disrupted in Moscow for days. With the front line stalled, Russian casualties topping one million, the economy suffering and missile and drone strikes becoming commonplace, a deep sense of discontent has spread through the country in recent months.” WSJ (Gift Article): Putin’s Strongman Image Is Fading as Ukraine Brings War Home to Russia. “It doesn’t mean that revolution is imminent, nor that Putin, currently 73 years old, will be sidelined soon. But the change in mood is remarkable when compared with just last December, when Russian officials were buoyed by hopes that President Trump will pressure Ukraine into a peace deal on Moscow’s terms, lifting economic sanctions and unleashing a business bonanza.” Ukraine is somehow managing a remarkable David v Goliath stand for democracy and against authoritarianism, all while being told by the supposed leader of the democratic world that they’ve lost and should surrender.

3

Narrowed to the Strait

For now, the peace talks between Iran and the US seem to have been narrowed down to a single issue: Reopening the Strait. “Tehran and Washington have scaled back ambitions for a sweeping settlement as differences persist, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program - including the fate of its highly enriched ​uranium stockpiles and how long Tehran would halt nuclear work. Instead, they are working toward a temporary arrangement set out in a one-page memo aimed at preventing a return to conflict and stabilizing shipping through the strait.” US and Iran explore short-term deal to end fighting.

+ “Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing ‘Project Freedom’ on social media Sunday afternoon.” It turns out that’s not the best way to build a global coalition. Even the Saudis balked. Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies. Now, it looks like Project Freedom could be back on soon. Here’s the latest from The Guardian and the NYT.

4

Costco Dependent

My dad regularly got the hot dog lunch at Costco because he liked to watch how the business ran while he ate. He’d also buy cheap pants there and then have them customized by his tailor, getting perfectly fitting dress pants at a fraction of the cost. So I can relate to this piece by Jordan Michelman in Taste: I Want to Live Like Costco People.”The scale of items at Costco sometimes demands we answer questions beyond easy comprehension. Do I need a 300-gram bag of premium orange chicken puffs? What the hell even are premium orange chicken puffs? ... I’m open to the concept of a yuzu citrus snack nut mix, perhaps to enjoy beneath my new Costco palapa, but do I desire three whole pounds of it? Every time I go to Costco, I stop and look at the 62 ounces of peanut M&M’s, and I think of my father, who loved to purchase this snack in bulk. I do not purchase the M&M’s for myself, but I do often take a picture—sometimes to text my mom, so we can remember Dad together for a moment, and sometimes just to keep for myself.”

5

Extra, Extra

Bourbonic Plague: “One of J. Edgar Hoover’s greatest reforms at the FBI was his embrace of fingerprinting. During the 1930s, visitors to the FBI offices in Washington, D.C., received souvenir fingerprint cards featuring his name. The men who succeeded him as FBI director were more discreet and judicious, mindful of the cult of personality that had developed around Hoover. They generally avoided giving out branded swag. But then came Kash Patel. President Trump’s FBI director has a great deal of affection for swag. Merchandise for sale on a website he co-founded—still operating, nearly 15 months into his term—includes beanies ($35), T-shirts ($35), orange camo hoodies ($65), trucker caps ($25), ‘government gangsters’ playing cards (on sale for $10), and a fight with kash Punisher scarf ($25). One thing not for sale is liquor, because liquor is something Patel gives away for free.” The Atlantic (Gift Article) is reacting to Patel’s attacks for their past reporting on him by reporting on him some more. Kash Patel’s Personalized Bourbon Stash.

+ In Sink: “In some parts it is happening at an average rate of 0.78 inches a month, according to NASA’s newly released report, such as at the main airport and the iconic monument commonly known as the Angel of Independence. Overall that means a yearly subsidence rate of about 9.5 inches. Over the course of less than a century, the drop has been more than 39 feet.” Mexico City is sinking so quickly, it can be seen from space.

+Scotus Operandi: “I think at a very basic level, people think we’re making policy decisions, [that] we’re saying we think this is what things should be as opposed to this is what the law provides ... I think they view us as truly political actors, which I don’t think is an accurate understanding of what we do. I would say that’s the main difficulty.” Chief Justice John Roberts says American public wrongly views the justices as political actors. (Reminds me of something an American president once said: “What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.”) Meanwhile, Clarence Thomas is now the 2nd longest-serving justice in Supreme Court history.

+ Disembark Collar: “Authorities around the world are racing to trace dozens of passengers who disembarked from the cruise ship at the center of a deadly hantavirus outbreak before isolation measures were implemented.” WHO says this is not the start of an epidemic. (So the disembark is worse than its bite?)

+ Got It Made in the Trade: “The Department of Justice is investigating a series of suspiciously timed trades in the oil market just ahead of major announcements by President Donald Trump and a top Iranian official about the war in Iran.” (Oh, phew. This DOJ is on it...) Meanwhile, Shell Reports Nearly $7 Billion Profit Amid Unprecedented Disruption.

+ Cains Able: “Long before Raising Cane’s became one of the fastest-growing restaurant chains in the US, company founder Todd Graves pitched the idea of a fast-food spot centered around a single item—the mighty chicken finger—in an undergraduate business course at the University of Georgia. The professor gave him the lowest grade in the class.” Bloomberg (Gift Article): Raising Cane’s Grew From an Idea a College Professor Hated.

6

Bottom of the News

“Using an experimental drug sold over the internet to lose weight is an inherently risky gamble. That’s a lesson a 32-year-old man had to painfully learn first-hand after he experienced horrific bouts of diarrhea likely caused by overdosing on the GLP-1 medication retatrutide.” The man was going to the bathroom up to 30 times a day. (On the plus side, the weight just came off...)