Out of the Shadows

Iran's Attack, Trump Trial, Trivia Scandal

Over the weekend, Iran dramatically scaled up its multidecade shadow war against Israel—shifting from attacks through proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to a direct bombardment from Iran that included an onslaught of more than 300 drones and missiles. This shift, positioned as a retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed top Iranian generals in Damascus, also serves as an overt example of the modern struggle that pits authoritarians who want to undo the world order vs western democracies. Those countries include Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. (Heads up for those on a college campus: the western democracies are the good guys.) It's notable that Russia uses the same Iranian made drones sent toward Israel, while Iran borrowed the mulitpronged attack tactics used by Russia in Ukraine. The issues are connected to each other and to the current Congressional failure to support US allies. Of course, the big question for Israel, Iran, the US, and the world, is what happens next.

+ "The Israelis had help—from the United States, the U.K, and, remarkably, Jordan, its Arab neighbor, with which relations have sharply deteriorated since the war in Gaza began. Early on Sunday morning, Jordan’s military shot down several drones and cruise missiles that had crossed into its airspace on the way to Israel. Less conspicuously, American radar and tracking systems arrayed across the Middle East, some of them in Arab countries that don’t often advertise their partnership with Israel, helped intercept Iran’s drones and missiles ... The biggest question is whether and how Israel will respond. Since 1948, it has been a cardinal rule of Israeli defense policy to avenge every attack, often with greater force. But now such a counterattack poses the imminent threat of sparking a regional war." Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker: Israel’s Momentous Decision.

+ David Ignatius in WaPo (Gift Article): A stunning victory with the shield creates an opening for Israel. "Israel, for a change, had the world on its side countering the Iranian assault. Britain & France joined the US in shooting down the Iranian volley. Sources said Saudi Arabia, Jordan & other Arab countries quietly joined in the integrated air defense, too ... Some Israelis will doubtless want to go harder on the offensive now that Iran’s rocket attack has been routed. But perhaps the show of force will create an opportunity for defusing a conflict that had, until this weekend, seemed damaging and demoralizing for Israel. After Saturday night’s fireworks, that momentum may have shifted."

+ The attack by Iran was a dangerous escalation and military failure. It also doesn't seem to make much political sense, coming at a time when Israel was increasingly isolated on the world stage. Richard Haass in Politico: This Seems to Be a Major Strategic Error on the Part of Iran. "The Iranians have lost control of the narrative. And even worse, they’ve introduced a new narrative, which like Oct. 7 casts Israel as the offended party. What Iran has done is throw Bibi Netanyahu the lifeline of lifelines that allows him to change the narrative. Now it’s about Iran — and Iran is an issue that, unlike Gaza, unites Israelis."

+ David Sanger in the NYT (Gift Article): With Nuclear Deal Dead, Containing Iran Grows More Fraught. "The U.S., Europe, Russia and China worked together on a 2015 deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program ... A lot has changed in the subsequent nine years. China and Russia are now more aligned with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” to an American-led order, along with the likes of North Korea. When President Biden gathered the leaders of six nations for a video call from the White House on Sunday to plot a common strategy for de-escalating the crisis between Israel and Iran, there was no chance of getting anyone from Beijing or Moscow on the screen. The disappearance of that unified front is one of the many factors that make this moment seem 'particularly dangerous.'"

+ An important reminder from Arash Azizi that, especially in today's world, borders don't define political positions. Ordinary Iranians Don’t Want a War With Israel. "You don’t need to be an expert on Iran to know some facts about Iranians in this moment: First, most are sick of the Islamic Republic and its octogenarian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ... Second, the people of Iran have no desire to experience a war with Israel. Despite decades of indoctrination in anti-Israel and anti-Semitic sentiment by their government, Iranians harbor very little hostility toward Israel ... Third, Iranians have a recent memory of how terrible war can be."

+ Even as Joe Biden took to the situation room while American forces were working to defend Israeli airspace, Donald Trump went full blown malignant narcissist at a rally and on his social network. "It would not have happened if we were in office." In the worst of times you can count on the worst person to behave the worst.

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These Are Trying Times

It's April 15th, and New Yorkers are really seeing their tax dollars at work. If I was a resident of NY, I might enclose a tip with my tax payments this year. As Judge Juan Merchan advised potential jurors today, "The name of this case is the People of the State of New York vs Donald Trump." The hush money case marks the first (but likely not the last) time a former president has gone on trial for criminal charges. You can follow the highlights basically anywhere, but here are links to CNN and NBC. It seems that, at a certain point, facing yet another 34 felony counts can get a little boring, because early reports have suggested that Trump's eyes have been closed and he even appeared to fall asleep during the early proceedings. Honestly, I'd like to do the same. Please take this reminder from a news addict: You are not required to watch and listen to every breathless second of coverage of what will be a lengthy trial. Your jury duty doesn't officially begin until November 5, 2024.

+ For Americans, it’s a momentous day marking the first time a president has faced a criminal trial. For Trump, it’s just another day which means another grift. Trump Media shares plunge more than 15% after company files to issue additional DJT stock. (Nothing like committing potential financial crimes while on trial for financial crimes.)

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Versed Trap

"The program, which is in its early stages of testing and known as 'Creator A.I.,' would allow influencers to chat with fans through direct messages on the social network and potentially through Instagram comments in the future, according to five people briefed on the company’s plans. The program will essentially be a chatbot that mimics the 'voice' of the Instagram influencer to respond to fans, the people said." Sapna Maheshwari and Mike Isaac in NYT (Gift Article): Instagram is testing a program that offers its top influencers the ability to interact with their followers over direct messages using a chatbot. (This product provides an opportunity to test AI's authenticity. Just ask the celebrity AI, "Is there anything more depressing than this?" If it answers, No, we've reached the Singularity.)

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Brought In For Questioning

"Wise, probably, not to have anything to do with this kind of illicit activity. The sort of misdeed that can send shock waves through a town that thought it had seen every conceivable shade of corruption. A violation of basic moral convention. A transgression that could permanently change the meaning of a capital/capitol offense: Someone cheated at pub trivia. A couple of someones, allegedly." WaPo (Gift Article): Inside the cheating scandal rocking D.C.’s trivia scene.

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Extra, Extra

Death Star: "In the past six decades, medicine has added about seven years to the average life span—less by saving young lives than by extending old ones, and often in states of ill health. In many cases, we’re prolonging the time it takes to die. A growing number of celebrity doctors, futurists, and so-called biohackers now argue that it doesn’t have to be this way." So many people I know are so into this stuff, especially the advice of Peter Attia. But, aside from the basics like regular exercise and eating healthy, is much of it really based in science? Dhruv Khullar in The New Yorker: How to Die in Good Health.

+ Scam, Slam, Thank You Gram: "When the scammer insists they marry in Nigeria, a place he says he's never been, Kitboga drops the act. 'Interesting, 'cause all of your IP addresses are there,' Kitboga says on a livestream, his voice now deeper, after switching off a voice changer." To make sure grandmas like his don't get conned, he scams the scammers.

+ Container Unsealed: "The massive container ship that caused the deadly collapse of a Baltimore bridge experienced apparent electrical issues before it left port but set out anyway." Now the FBI is investigating.

+ Scheff's Kiss: "Golf is a sport obsessed with numbers and records to the point of concerning disassociation, but this week, one stat sticks out above the others. By bagging his second green jacket, the 27-year-old Scheffler becomes the fourth-youngest player to prevail at the Masters multiple times. The three ahead of him? Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Seve Ballesteros. How’s that for rarefied air?" Scottie Scheffler Has Become Golf’s Most Pleasant Destroyer. And from ESPN: The inevitability of Scottie Scheffler winning the 2024 Masters. (On Sunday, even when it seemed close, it also seemed over.)

+ Hit the Bricks: "Los Angeles citizens can rest easy knowing that a criminal theft ring is no longer stalking the city’s retail stores to feed a Lego black market. That’s because the California Highway Patrol announced this week that it had arrested four people it accused of swiping what police estimated was 'approximately $300,000' worth of Lego sets." (Cut to the scene in the prison yard where an ominous looking criminal asks, "So what are you in for?")

+ Bean Counters: "The researchers, hoping to learn more about the plants to better protect them from pests and climate change, found that the species emerged around 600,000 years ago through natural crossbreeding of two other coffee species." Your morning coffee may be more than a half million years old. (No problem, just add a little more half and half.)

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Bottom of the News

"I wouldn’t say I have anger issues, but to avoid me getting myself into trouble, I just avoid it completely." WSJ (Gift Article): Tantrums and Turf Wars: The School Car Line Is Chaos. Both of my kids' carpool lines are brutal and both of them come with strict, (nearly) impossible to break rules. As soon as both of them graduate and I've moved safely out of state, I'll let you know how we beat the system.

+ SNL was excellent this week. Two highlights included a deranged Beavis and Butthead skit and Caitlyn Clark reminding Michael Che of some of his women's basketball takes.