Playing with House Money

Real Estate Reality, A Weakened Warrior

Some words you might be happy to see in a real estate listing for your home: Breathtaking, Pristine, Charming. Some words you might not be happy to see in a real esate listing for your home: Smoldering, Scorching, Blub, blub, blub... In the Atlantic (Gift Article), Vann R. Newkirk II gives an overview of What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century. “Over the next 30 years or so, the changes to American life might be short of apocalyptic. But miles of heartbreak lie between here and the apocalypse, and the future toward which we are heading will mean heartbreak for millions. Many people will go in search of new homes in cooler, more predictable places. Those travelers will leave behind growing portions of America where services and comforts will be in short supply—let’s call them ‘dead zones.’ Should the demolition of America’s rule of law continue, authoritarianism and climate change will reinforce each other, a vicious spiral from which it will be difficult to exit. How do we know this? As ever, all it takes is looking around ... Yet 2025 has been perhaps the single most devastating year in the fight for a livable planet. An authoritarian American president has pressed what can only be described as a policy of climate-change acceleration—destroying commitments to clean energy and pushing for more oil production. It doesn’t require an oracle to see where this trajectory might lead.” As obvious as the arriving danger is, there are still plenty of deniers. So how does one know who to believe? As always, it pays to follow the money. Or in this case, the absence of money, as homeowners in an increasing number of places are seeing insurance prices soar which is making their home values sink. Even if your home isn’t yet underwater, your mortgage might be. NYT (Gift Article): A Climate ‘Shock’ Is Eroding Some Home Values. New Data Shows How Much. The problem for many home owners across the country can be boiled down this: Politicians may lie, but the numbers don’t. And no one crunches those numbers more than reinsurance companies. “Insurance companies purchase reinsurance to help limit their exposure when a catastrophe hits. Over the past several years, global reinsurance companies have had what the researchers call a ‘climate epiphany’ and have roughly doubled the rates they charge home insurance providers.” Nothing can hammer home reality like the bottom line.

2

Everybody’s Working for the Weakened

The Epstein files bill that Trump tried to prevent but then was forced to get behind advanced through both chambers and is awaiting the president’s signature. But stopping this information from becoming public has been one of Trump’s signature goals, so it’s fair to wonder if we’ll actually see the full files anytime soon. As I’ve mentioned, my hunch is that Pam Bondi will say she can’t release all of them because of the ongoing investigation into Epstein and others (Democrats) that Trump ordered last week. We don’t know how this will all play out, but we do know that it’s been a rare moment when the GOP (in large numbers) couldn’t be strong-armed by Trump. It would be nice to say we’ve reached some kind of moral reckoning. But the turning point has more do to with recent election results and the latest polling numbers. Meanwhile, a reminder: Trump Will Get More Reckless as His Power Ebbs.

+ How far will that ebb flow? Keep in mind, there will always be two separate and unequal standards. How scandals affect Trump. And how they affect everyone else. Consider this story which would obliterate the average political career: One of the rioters who Trump pardoned was just arrested for child sexual abuse(during the same week Trump’s ties to Epstein are dominating the news), and it’s barely a blip in the news. Meanwhile, among those who are not Trump, scandals hurt: Larry Summers resigns from OpenAI board, Harvard launches probe after release of Epstein emails. At this point, we don’t know if the Epstein scandal will damage Trump or just a lot of other people. We only know what recent history suggests.

3

Happen Stance

From the WaPo Editorial Board (Gift Article): Things happen: Setting the record straight about our murdered colleague. “The United States government often advances its national interests by working with nasty people, and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is one of the nastiest. It’s one thing, however regrettable, to deal reluctantly with him. President Donald Trump’s performance at the White House Tuesday was something else entirely: weak, crass and of no strategic benefit to America.” (Looking back, maybe WaPo should have endorsed a candidate in the 2024 presidential election...) America is at a crossroads and must choose correctly between these two opposing visions. The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice. Or, Things happen.

4

The Honeymoo-ers

“Donald Scherber bought a Minnesota dairy farm in 1958. His son, John, bought it from him in 1995 and will probably pass it down to his children. For decades, the family has made a living selling the milk of their dairy cows. But recently, Scherber’s Morningstar Dairy has become known in the Minneapolis area for another business.” And they’re far from the only farmers getting in on this action. WaPo (Gift Article): Cow cuddling gives farms boost amid dropping dairy prices. Hey, it beats falling in love with an AI...

5

Extra, Extra

Backfire? The Texas gerrymandering move that attempts to pick up five seats for the GOP has been blocked by a federal court and is now headed for SCOTUS. Meanwhile, the GOP is headed to court to try to block the gerrymandering changes that California voters just approved. Given the merits (or lack thereof) of both cases, it’s not unthinkable that Texas will be unable to use their new maps while California’s will stand. Slate (Gift Article): Republicans Are Suing to Kill California’s Pro-Democratic Gerrymander. They Have a Huge Problem.

+ Dust in the Wind: “Poisonous dust falls from the sky over the town of Ogijo, near Lagos, Nigeria. It coats kitchen floors, vegetable gardens, churchyards and schoolyards. The toxic soot billows from crude factories that recycle lead for American companies. With every breath, people inhale invisible lead particles and absorb them into their bloodstream. The metal seeps into their brains, wreaking havoc on their nervous systems. It damages livers and kidneys. Toddlers ingest the dust by crawling across floors, playgrounds and backyards, then putting their hands in their mouths.” A report from the NYT (Gift Article): Recycling Lead for U.S. Car Batteries Is Poisoning People.

+ Iowa You Nothing for This Ride: “Free city buses are relatively rare in the United States. The idea has been getting a new look recently, after Zohran Mamdani won New York City’s mayoral race with a promise to make buses free. However, critics have described the plan as pie in the sky, and Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York recently voiced doubts.” Don’t tell that to Iowa City. Iowa City Made Its Buses Free. Traffic Cleared, and So Did the Air.

+ Breaking Up is Hard to Do: “When the court first looked at this case, the opinions ‘did not even mention the word ‘TikTok.’ On Tuesday, TikTok more or less decided the case.” Casey Newton: The simple test that blew up the FTC’s case against Meta.

+ No Mas Hamas? WSJ (Gift Article): “Hamas’s popularity has edged up among Palestinians in Gaza since the cease-fire, ending a slide during the war and posing a challenge to President Trump’s plan to bring peace to the enclave by disarming the militant group.”

+ Curaçao it Goes: “As the final whistle blew Tuesday, few were rethinking anything about their decision. They had just delivered their country one of its happiest-ever moments.” Curaçao, the smallest nation in World Cup history, just shocked the soccer world.

+ Upright Citizen: “Self-taught in the art of kicking by studying videos on YouTube, Matsuzawa has turned himself into a hero at the University of Hawaii.” The ‘Tokyo Toe’ Learned Football on YouTube. Now He Might Be the Best Kicker in College Football.

6

Bottom of the News

“Their study suggests that the mouth-on-mouth kiss evolved more than 21 million years ago, and was something that the common ancestor of humans and other great apes probably indulged in. The same research concluded that Neanderthals may have kissed too – and that humans and Neanderthals may even have smooched one another.” One never forgets a first kiss. Even if it dates back 21 million years. (Or it just feels that long...)