Talking Bout My Degeneration

Betting It All, Regime 2.0

Back in my younger days, my friend Norman and I would lay NFL bets with a couple bookies named Rocky and Al. Sundays became days of extreme addiction-like focus, as games in which we once had no vested interest were turned into three hours of dopamine-pumping, enthralling action where every play could mean the difference between winning and losing. We were addicted. But we were only addicted for a few hours on a few Sundays during football season. Our addiction was also limited by the barriers set up by sports leagues and states that frowned upon sports gambling. Not to mention the fact that we were justifiably afraid of getting in too deep with dudes named Rocky and Al. Because of these factors, it wasn’t that hard for us to ultimately punt, pass, and kick the sports betting habit. But what if Rocky and Al launched an app that combined all the most powerful, addicting qualities of iPhones, social media, and gambling? What if what happens in Vegas no longer stayed there, but could be carried around in our pockets? What if the once social aspects (and guardrails) of gambling were replaced by the unique isolation that emerges in the secretive relationship of a human and their phone? What if the leagues that once went to great lengths to block gambling now promoted it relentlessly? What if instead of getting our fix over the course of a few Fall Sundays, Norman and I could bet on anything, anytime — and such behavior was not only accepted by the mainstream, but backed by billions in marketing piped through the mouths of some of our most well-known celebrities? Norman and I would have gone on tilt (a term that describes “the emotional distress that causes a gambler to make unwise decisions”), but not just in terms of our bets, we would have gone on tilt in life.

Sure, you’re thinking, but if you and Norman went to the effort of risking life and limb to bet with some dudes named Rocky and Al, you’re automatically in the category of those susceptible to gambling abuse. OK, so let’s consider the case of the excellent journalist McKay Coppins. Coppins isn’t like Norman and me. He isn’t particularly interested in sports. When it comes to betting, he didn’t know a parlay from a point spread. He isn’t a person generally attracted to vice at all. “And as a practicing Mormon, [he is] prohibited from indulging in games of chance.” Think Coppins would have a better chance to resist the temptation of the new gambling landscape? Don’t bet on it. The editors at The Atlantic (Gift Article) fronted Coppins $10K to explore “the sports-betting industry—its explosive growth, its sudden cultural ubiquity, and what it’s doing to America ... [where] practically overnight, we took an ancient vice—long regarded as soul-rotting and civilizationally ruinous—put it on everyone’s phone, and made it as normal and frictionless as checking the weather. What could possibly go wrong?” My year as a degenerate gambler. “The prediction markets represent the logical end point of the sports-betting explosion: Everything in American life—politics and culture, art and war—becomes a Las Vegas table game, tantalizing in its promise of profit, rigged against regular people, destined to demoralize and crush those who play.” (I tried to bet the over on every concern we have about the damage that will be done by these trends, but when I dialed the number, Rocky and Al’s line was no longer in service.)

+ As troubling as the Vegasization of America is for the general population, it’s much worse for college-aged males. I covered this topic last week. The House always wins. The same is not true for the Frat House. Class Dismissed.

2

The Gulf Between

Regardless of your position on America’s Gulf “excursion,” no thinking person can deny that freeing the Iranian population from a deadly regime would be a good thing, as would freeing Israel and the region from the constant threat of terrorism. So would freeing the world from the concern about Iran’s quest to go nuclear. The big question about what the president has already described as a big win is whether the current strategy (to the extent there is one) gets us closer to any of these goals. Reuters: US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse, say sources.

+ David Igantius in WaPo (Gift Article): “If the conflict ends tomorrow, Iran will have lost nearly all its nuclear facilities and scientists, most of its missiles and missile launchers, most of its weapons factories, most of its navy, and much of the command and control for its military, intelligence and security forces. But the regime survives. It has taken America’s best punch, and it’s still standing.” Iran’s Islamic Republic 2.0 is coming — and it won’t be pretty.

+ In addition to the questions about what this war does to Iran and the global economy, we also have to ask what it’s doing to us, as we watch our government abandon the moral high ground (even lying about an accidental strike on a school) for what they themselves have labeled fury. NYT (Gift Article): How Hegseth Came to See Moral Purpose in War as Weakness. “His diagnosis of the military’s shortcomings is one that often emerges after a lost war. ‘There’s always someone who thinks that if only we were crueler, if only we’d killed another million Vietnamese, then we would have won this war,’ said Phil Klay, a novelist and a Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq war. ‘If you reduce war to the satisfied feeling you get when you kill the enemy, it makes it a lot simpler and more satisfying.’”

+ Ultimately, it’s impossible to separate the (many) goals stated by the administration from the people in the administration who are actually running this operation. I covered this yesterday. Strait Outta Competence.

+ The Hormuz Strait remains dire, the “current disruption to the world’s oil supply from the Persian Gulf is the largest in history,” Israel launched more strikes in Beirut, Iran is attacking tankers, and Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement. Here’s the latest from NYT and The Guardian.

3

Not Worth the Hassle

We’re constantly reminded of the benefits of social connections as we age. But it turns out not all social connections are created equally, and people who suck can literally suck the life out of you. Negative social ties as emerging risk factors for accelerated aging, inflammation, and multimorbidity. “Each additional hassler is associated with faster biological aging, with especially pronounced effects when the hassler is a family member.”

4

Bill of Health

“In the survey, 15 percent of individuals said they had borrowed money in the last year to pay for medical expenses, while another 11 percent said they had skipped a meal. Those without insurance reported even more trade-offs.” A Third of Americans Have Cut Spending or Borrowed Money for Health Care.

5

Extra, Extra

The Home Front: The war abroad has distracted us from the war at home. “The case of Marimar Martinez, a U.S. citizen shot by an officer in Chicago, offers a rare window into the recent spate of D.H.S. shootings—and the smear campaigns that often follow.” The New Yorker: Shot by Border Patrol, Then Called a Domestic Terrorist.

+ Our Time is Up: “The therapist described being stretched so thin that schedulers replaced some one-on-one sessions with online group sessions that included as many as 35 veterans. The therapist said despite that they were still overloaded with individual sessions and had to limit each one to as little as 16 minutes.” Veterans Who Depend on Mental Health Care Keep Losing Their Therapists Under Trump.

+ Synagogue Attack: Suspect dead after apparent vehicle ramming and shooting incident at Michigan synagogue. Thankfully, it looks like no one else was killed.

+ Humans Behind the AI: “Every day, Michael Geoffrey Asia spent eight consecutive hours at his laptop in Kenya staring at porn, annotating what was happening in every frame for an AI data labeling company. When he was done with his shift, he started his second job as the human labor behind AI sex bots, sexting with real lonely people he suspected were in the United States. His boss was an algorithm that told him to flit in and out of different personas.” 404: ‘AI Is African Intelligence’: The Workers Who Train AI Are Fighting Back.

+ Conscripted From Abroad: “Less than a year ago, Malick Diop took a leap of faith, betting an education in Russia would help him lift his family out of poverty back in Africa. Now the 25-year-old sits in a Ukrainian POW camp, his optimism replaced by barbed-wire fencing and snow-covered countryside that is unlike anything he grew up with in Senegal.” This is crazy. WSJ (Gift Article): Russia Lures Recruits From Africa to Feed Its Ukraine War Machine. “Diop, who says he ended up in uniform after being lured by the promise of a civilian job, is one of the lucky ones. A Russian list of 316 deceased African recruits shows that, on average, they died less than six months after being deployed.”

+ Microsoft Hardens: “Is the era of corporate silence during the Trump administration officially over? Microsoft filed a court brief late on Tuesday supporting Anthropic’s lawsuit against the Pentagon, a momentous decision for one of the nation’s biggest companies that’s also one of the largest government contractors around.” (This both indicates the seriousness with which companies view this issue, and possibly the fact that they view the Trump administration as weakened and less dangerous.) Microsoft Takes a Stand Against the Trump Administration.

+ UFC Notes: Today’s reminder that it can always get crazier. Kash Patel Confirms UFC Fighters Will Train FBI Agents This Week, Calling It A Historic Opportunity.

6

Bottom of the News

“A camel beauty pageant in Oman has been plunged into chaos as 20 of its competitors were disqualified after their owners enhanced their humps and other features using injectable fillers, silicone wax and Botox.”

+ “Whether it’s the Pit of Souls or the Child Reapers, there’s a lot to be worried about. But most of all? The price at the pump.” McSweeney’s: What the Thousand-Year Blood Reign Means for Gas Prices.