The Elephant in the Boom

AI Economics, SCOTUS Crowns Trump

I’m thinking of changing my name to DAIve. These days, you can’t get anywhere in business without having AI as a core ingredient. AI isn’t just driving startup fundraising, innovation, and you crazy. It’s the engine that’s basically driving the global economy. Because of the financial scope of this endeavor, it’s not only a story about where money is going. It’s also a story about where it isn’t. It’s pretty simple math: If all the investment and lending dollars are going to DAIve, Dave is shit out of luck. And if DAIve doesn’t work out, the hit to the economy will take Dave (and everyone else) with it. “Many economists believe that at a time of rising inflation, a weakening job market and global unrest, this boom is keeping the U.S. economy afloat ... A.I. is vacuuming up so much of our land, talent, semiconductor chips, building materials — and, above all, so much of our money, that it is beginning to crowd out the rest of the economy. In other words, A.I. isn’t merely compensating for the weakness in the rest of the economy. It is, at least in part, causing it.” Jennifer M. Harris in the NYT (Gift Article): The Generational Force Hollowing Out the Economy. We’ve seen this story play out before. Recently, the dotcom boom led to a recession in the early 2000s. And a little further back, railroads followed a similar track. “All the investment funneling into A.I. bears similarities to the early years of railroad expansion and the internet. The railroad buildout that began in the 1820s absorbed a yearly average of 2 percent of America’s gross domestic product during the 1850s. But years later, when the railroad boom didn’t deliver the financial benefits investors promised, the economy sank into a depression. Roughly 18,000 businesses vanished within two years. By 1876, unemployment had reached about 14 percent.” (And Railroad even has AI in it...)

+ The Bank for International Settlements “drew parallels to earlier technology cycles, including canal construction in the 1830s, British railways in the 1840s, electrification in the late 1920s, and the dot-com boom of the late 1990s — all of which ended in investment reversals that triggered economy-wide recessions.” The central bank for central banks warned that the AI spending frenzy could crash markets.

2

Hunter v Gatherers

There are still a few non-AI industries that are booming. For example: Corruption. “When Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick met with Kazakhstan’s president at the St. Regis Hotel last September in New York, President Trump jumped in by phone as the men sealed a deal on a top priority for Washington.” But it wasn’t only a top priority for Washington. It was also a top priority for the Lutnicks and the Trumps. “Their sons were soon doing business with partners in a deal that their fathers were negotiating, continuing a pattern of self-enrichment in the second Trump administration that has few precedents in American history.” Trump Cut a Billion-Dollar Mining Deal. His Sons Stand to Profit. Yet, we spent a lot more time writing articles about Hunter than these gatherers...

+ Trump bought as much as $5 million in Axon stock before ICE sought a $220 million Taser deal. But don’t worry. No conflict here. “The White House has said that Trump’s assets are held in a trust managed by his children.” (Phew...)

3

Kingdom Coming

“The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday overturned a 91-year-old precedent that has prevented presidents from removing members of independent agencies at will. The decision represents a significant win for the Trump administration and a major expansion of the president’s control over parts of the governmentonce seen as a check on his powers.” (The 6-3 decision did limit the president’s ability to fire members of the Fed because even the Court’s extreme majority doesn’t want this lunatic to ruin their 401Ks.)

+ Sotomayor’s dissent: “The Court gives the President a power unknown even to the English Crown against which the Founders revolted, elevating him above his once-coequal branches by transforming a duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed into a license to act in defiance of those very laws ... [the country’s founding Framers] “never intended to give the President ‘the complete set of powers that the English Crown held, let alone more.’”

+ Supreme Court Upholds Mississippi Late-Arriving Mail-In Ballot Law. (By a 5-4 decision, they decided voting still counts.)

+ And a little reminder of who’s getting these royal powers: Supreme Court Lets $5 Million Sex Abuse Verdict Against Trump Stand.

+ NYT (Gift Article): The Major Supreme Court Decisions in 2026.

4

Back Room Deals

In an aging America, more elderly homeowners want to stay in their own homes for the duration. In an economically divided America, more young people are looking for good deals on a rental. Hence, a roommate opportunity. NYT (Gift Article): Older Adults Turn to ‘Golden Girls’ Housing. (Instead of Golden Girls, I’m going to opt for ‘The Office’ housing, and live out my final years making That’s what she said jokes on a beet farm.)

5

Extra, Extra

Aftershocks: “A 21-year-old man was pulled from rubble in La Guaira state after being trapped for 106 hours.” There are still a few miracles coming out of Venezuela, but mostly it’s grief for the victims and the missing, and a building anger toward the government. Here’s the last from BBC and The Guardian. And here is a collection of photos. Rescue and Recovery in Venezuela.

+ Driving Wedge: “It is rare that a single scientific paper shapes how people think about a challenge as daunting as climate change. But one, known as ‘Wedges,’ published 22 years ago by researchers at Princeton University, told an irresistible story. It made solving climate change seem possible, even simple.” But here’s the rub. The study was funded by BP. ProPublica: How Oil Execs Shaped a Landmark Climate Study.

+ Hit the Pine, Meet: “President Donald Trump said the Islamic Republic had requested a meeting with U.S. counterparts and that they planned to convene Tuesday in Doha, Qatar ... Tehran insisted it has not agreed to meet with the U.S.” And we don’t know who to believe. AP: US and Iran pause strikes but disagree over next steps on talks.

+ Buttigieg Case: “You’ve probably heard of ‘swatting.’ It’s a cruel and dangerous kind of hoax that has started happening more frequently in recent years ... Now imagine the same concept, but with Child Protective Services instead of a SWAT team. Hadn’t thought of that? Me neither, until a few days ago when a police officer and a CPS worker showed up at our home and politely asked to speak with me.” Pete Buttigieg: A Terrible Thing Happened to My Family. This is truly crazy. And NYT(Gift Article): “The former transportation secretary recounted being kept away from his 4-year-old twins overnight after an anonymous report accused him of posing a threat to them.”

+ We Had 250 Years to Prepare! “Propaganda has a way of being blissfully unconcerned with material reality, and the state fair is no exception. When I arrived Thursday morning, workers were still assembling fencing, and I spotted bits of metal on the floor in Kentucky. North Carolina had no power. At one point in the afternoon, the ‘Faith & Family’ pavilion—where the booths included the Museum of the Bible, Hillsdale College, and an evangelical-Christian stall labeled The Great Awakening—was entirely in the dark.” The Great American State Fair Isn’t Very Great. (It’s also basically empty...)

+ Puttz: “Interviews with 19 sources reveal two incidents of lewd language and unwanted advances, and the behavior that led to his departure from two additional golf clubs.” Phil Mickelson’s Long History of Misconduct.

+ A Little Bird Told Me: “A scientist who decoded the vocalizations that a bird uses to communicate has won a $100,000 prize for making progress towards a world in which humans can talk to the animals.”

6

Bottom of the News

“Americans tend to interpret discomfort as a failure of infrastructure, whereas Europeans seem much more willing to regard it as part of life. These contrasting views have resulted in far too much air-conditioning on one side and not remotely enough on the other.” Thomas Chatterton Williams: The Overlooked Reason Europe Doesn’t Have AC. Maybe this will convince them they need more: Heat forces yodelers at annual Swiss festival to sing in fountains.